An Energy Revolution

I have just finished reading 'Iron, Steam and Money' by Roger Osbourne. It is a scholarly review of the sixty years or so around 1800 when Britain revolutionised the world through a period of tremendous innovation, industrialisation and social change. His last few sentences sum up one of the major themes of the whole book.

"Understanding the Industrial Revolution should at least enable us to appreciate the central role that energy holds in every aspect of modern life. Life before industrialisation was, for most people, a continual struggle to survive; without reliable sources of energy we cannot live secure and comfortable lives. Any answer to the twin problems of global resources and climate change must begin with that stark truth."

This really does hit the nail on the head. Even our current digital and communications revolution relies on energy; be it for running servers to support the enormous amount of data we create every day or the batteries which our mobile devices are completely dependent on. 

The industrial revolution unleashed the power of fossil fuels; the next stage of innovation and change will need to unleash alternative sources of energy and we are already about half way through the sixty years we have to achieve that new energy revolution. 

Energy makes the world go round

A role I have picked up recently is President of the Energy Institute. This is a not for profit organisation which promotes knowledge, skills and best practice in the energy industry. One benefit of membership is that you get the bi monthly publication 'energy world'. I have just caught up with the July/August edition. The range of articles shows how varied and important energy is. Here are just some things I picked out.

1. In a brief summary of BP's Statistical review of world energy the magazine points out that even in a year of low global economic growth, energy consumption was still up 1.8%. I intend to spend longer looking through the BP report soon.

2. The World Nuclear Association reported that whilst nuclear capacity increased by 3.7 GW, output globally was down 7% reflecting the continuing issues in Japan.

3. Renewable energy continues to grow with reports on solar in Japan, Mexico and Belgium (a car plant) and wind in Australia, Mongolia, Sweden, France and Chile. It is truly a global business now.

4. New gas plants continue to be installed in Europe in the Netherlands, Germany and Italy. In the latter  case its a small aero derivative plant designed to complement renewables. I have long believed that a combination of gas and renewables are the key to the electricity supply industry.

5. A summary of the progress being made on Green deal and ECO installations under the UK Government's energy efficiency policies. Although lots of people have had Green Deal assessments not many have actually gone all the way through  and I worry about how complicated the whole thing has become.

6.  A summary of the British Geological Survey report on the potential shale gas in the Bowland Basin in the north of England. They estimate there could be hundreds of years of UK gas demand but the key will be how much is actually recoverable and that needs drilling and engineering work which hasn't really started yet.

7. A review of global thermal power generation prospects. Apparently there are 1,647 thermal generation projects under development with India accounting for over half. For example, a 3.2 GW coal fired station is under construction in Madhya Pradesh state and a lot of coal build is planned. In the US the focus is on gas plant given the low gas prices. The Middle East is also seeing a move towards gas. However, a follow on article points out that investment in Europe is declining rapidly. This shows yet again how electricity is frequently a regional business with different drivers affecting different parts of the world.

As well as all this there were articles on US climate policy, distributed energy, UK energy policy, support for advanced offshore wind technologies, super critical coal power plant efficiencies, waste to energy gasification, the future of heat networks in the UK and the Czech Republic and geothermal energy in Ireland. 

However, the most interesting article for me is one about the Ashdown awards which supported the UN's sustainable energy for all initiative. SolarAid, a charity I have an involvement with, won the International Gold Award and it is really good to see the Energy Institute give coverage to the energy needs of the devolping world.

And all that in one issue. 

Heaven is a place ( and a single day ) on Earth.

We were incredibly fortunate to go on a safari to Kenya and had a great time. The  following is an electronic postcard I sent of one of our days in the Mara and contrary to my Father in laws opinion I actually wrote it myself with a few phrases borrowed from my wife.

The day began at 6.30 with the dawn chorus and a cup of deliciously mild Kenyan coffee and then we set off on the morning game drive. Everything is more 'alive' first thing and within minutes we had seen a couple of Jackals, a burrowing and skittish family of Warthogs, with their tails acting as signposts, and the usual seven species of antelope. Well, when I say usual that completely misses the point. Antelope are plentiful in the Mara and you can take them for granted but they are incredibly beautiful and diverse. In size they range from the very small and timid Dik- Dik to the majestic Eland which can be as a tall as two meters. Then there are the Tommies, Grants and Impala which are all, at first glance, similar but have different colourings, markings and heights. The most plentiful of the smaller antelope are the Tommies which appear incredibly enthusiastic with their perpetually wagging tails. At this time of year the most common species is the Wildebeest which are around in their thousands. From observing the crossing at the River the day before we had come to the conclusion that their defining characteristic is stupidity. They risk their life going one way and then change their minds and go back again! Finally, we had the occasional glimpse of a Waterbuck and their distinctive behind which can look like a toilet seat.

We then caught sight of our first Elephant for the day, a family group of 18 ranging from the enormous Matriarch to a baby only a few months old. They were peacefully munching their way through a large field of grass in the company of a solitary Buffalo. The scenery changed again through some a heavily wooded area until we came to a vast area of long grass punctuated by the odd solitary tree. With a sixth sense, born of years of experience, William, our guide made for one in the distance were we found two young male Cheetah, who from the size of their bellies had just eaten. We watched in hushed silence as they lounged in the sun or marked their territory by spraying the tree. A change of scenery was then on their agenda and we spent a fascinating 15 minutes tracking them through the long grass which made us appreciate the effectiveness of their camouflage. 

After a brief sighting of four young Lions snoozing under a tree, the next port of call was 'Hyena Valley', a small rocky gorge full of spotted Hyenas of all ages resting in the crevices and keeping a close eye on our passage. The other occupants were rock Hyrax, a small rodent like creature measuring about 20 centimetres in length, whose DNA fingerprint is the closest to that of the Elephant. Bizarre. 

Taking care to avoid a couple of bachelor Buffalo, we stopped for a bush breakfast in a clearing by a stream. Having a choice of really fresh fruit and eggs cooked to order whilst scanning the surroundings for eagles and elephants has to be the best way of eating breakfast and all washed down by some more of that great Kenyan Coffee. 

On the game drive back to camp we continued bird spotting. The variety of bird life in Africa is incredible; in our four days in the Mara we must have seen over 50 different types and on this single day we saw small birds like canaries and swifts, ground birds such as Ostriches, spar fowl  and the ever amusing guinea fowl ( otherwise known as bush chicken ), large birds from the stork, eagle ( bateleur, brown snake and Tawny ) and vulture families, distinctively shaped birds such as the enormous nest building Hammerkopf and various Hornbills and then really colourful birds like superb starlings, lilac breasted rollers, violet backed starlings and a whole variety of kingfishers with their iconic beaks. We spent some time touring around leopard country but didn't see any sign of these very elusive creatures. However, having had an almost textbook view only two days before we were satisfied with just more antelope, a single male Elephant, a troop of noisy baboons and numerous banded mongoose scurrying back to their den. 

Our nights had been spent at Richard's camp in the Mara north conservancy and we returned for restoring solar showers and a 'light' lunch of spaghetti bolognese and three different salads before packing up. Now the word 'camp really doesn't do it justice. The tents are as big as a small house, tall enough to stand up in and well furnished with amongst other things a full sized bed. As we were the only guests we had the well appointed mess tent to ourselves. 

We had been given the option of visiting the other Richard's camp in the forest so left on our second game drive of the day which doubled as a transfer. Each game drive takes in grassland scenes and after the Wildebeest, the second most common species in the Mara is the plains zebra. However, there is nothing plain about the zebra. We must have seen thousands and every single one has a different pattern of markings. We decided after hours of study that they are white with back stripes mainly because on the young the stripes are often more brownish. 

The next sighting was something very special indeed. We came across what must have been the lion nursery school. Six lionesses had with them 12 cubs making eighteen, yes 18, lions in all. We spent nearly an hour, alone, watching all the family interactions from a distance of about 20 feet and occasionally closer, when one of the lions went for a wander. All of the cubs were between one and four months old and each cub can feed from any mother, which made for some clambering, scrapping and pushing from the cubs and some reluctance from the mothers. Some of the older cubs were also practising their stalking and fighting skills. Even our guide had not seen such a large group together and it was difficult to pull ourselves away, but the next camp awaited. 

After a quick bag drop we headed out for a drive down to the banks of the main Mara river for dinner with the hippos. We thought breakfast couldn't be beaten but we were wrong. Sitting by a river full of over 50 yawning, wallowing hippos, drinking Tusker beer, watching an Africa sunset  topped it. We had to walk all of twenty paces before sitting down to a three course meal of baked Brie, roast chicken and crepes all cooked in a charcoal field oven. You are left in wonder at the ability to produce such good food in the middle of the bush. The African night sky is awesome on a clear night with countless stars visible to the naked eye and when the silence is broken only by the noise of the hippos leaving the water for their nocturnal grazing. 

Our last game drive was a night one back to camp. Everything looks different at night with ghostly zebras picked out by the spotlight along side seated Tommies, grazing hippos and startled Wilderbeest. We had our first sighting of the comical Spring hare which is also known as the African Kangaroo as it hops on its hind legs when it is in a hurry. One even hopped under our Land Rover, banging its head on the chassis in mid hop.

Then it was back to camp and into bed with a nice hot water bottle. And that was just another day in Paradise. 

A Sense of Purpose

There is increasing focus now on 'wellbeing' as a measure of a countries relative position and progress rather than simply GDP. There are lots of different ways of looking at this and I came across one in the book 'The Coming Jobs War' by Jim Clifton. In some ways this is a different way of approaching our needs from those I mentioned earlier such as Maslow's hierarchy because it tends to look at the society level rather than just the  individual and is very much focused on the needs of the 21st century. Clifton proposes the following levels.

1. LAW AND ORDER. He says "absence of fear is the first of the new demands of world leadership." It doesn't relate directly to crime but its more about fear. It's not so much whether you are safe but whether you feel safe.

2. FOOD AND SHELTER. This one speaks for itself.

3. KEY INSTITUTIONS. Here Clifton is mainly talking about healthcare and education.

4. MOBILITY AND COMMUNICATION. It's not just physical mobility but also of "thought and expression".

5. YOUTH DEVELOPMENT. Children need to be treated with dignity and be able to learn.

6. JOB CLIMATE.  The key question is whether it is a good time and place to find a good job.

7. JOB ENHANCEMENT. This focuses on whether a place creates jobs in which people can develop and fosters an entrepreneurial spirit.

He argues that for most Western Economies the first four are generally meet and so the challenge is all around the last three. His almost zealous focus on 'jobs' makes me a little uncomfortable but I would substitute 'purpose' which is often fulfilled from having a job and then I am in full agreement. Our leaders have to focus on ensuring that all sectors of our society have a real sense of purpose in their lives and that is often best meet by ensuring they have a rewarding job. That is a sure fire way of maximising well being. 

Lean In or Go For It; just be yourself.

Before I left SSE two people recommended I read Lean In by Sheryl Sandberg ( thanks Caroline and Melissa ). I have long been concerned about gender equality in business and have struggled with the issues of ensuring women are better represented in senior leadership positions so followed up. It is a thought provoking book with a good mix of well sourced research and anecdotes of real world experiences. I have observed over the years that men and women do, often, behave differently in a business environment and I now know about things like 'imposter syndrome', the downside of achievement for women, the importance of mentors and sponsors and the myth of 'having it all'. Along with other themes she addresses these have helped me understand better what was going on. I wish I had read it earlier. 

I have always believed that mixed teams are the best performing ones and Sandberg backs up her same belief with an impressive list of academic sources. Every senior figure in business should do all they can to help move us in this direction and if you don't know where to start this book is a pretty good place. 

The book also, briefly talks about authentic leadership when she says "true leadership stems from individuality that is honestly and sometimes imperfectly expressed....leaders should strive for authenticity over perfection." All my years as a business leader have shown me how true this is. I didn't do well when I tried to be something or someone I'm not. I can't do slick or polished and 'imperfectly  expressed' is what you get but people really do appreciate seeing and knowing the real you.

One last thing. I don't like the title of the book. I would have preferred 'go for it' but then again maybe that's 'imperfectly expressed'!

The Grass is Greener on the other side. Oh wait a minute!

I was lucky enough to witness part of the great Wildebeest migration from the Serengeti in Tanzania to the Mara in Kenya. Over one million animals make this great journey every year in search of better grazing. A key, and particularly dangerous, bit is when the herds reach the Mara River and risk death from either jumping down the bank or the crocodiles at the bottom.

It is an incredible experience but is not as orderly as I expected. I thought I would see one long line going in one direction but it isn't like that. The Wildebeest initially think the grass is greener on the side and jump down only for some to change their minds and go straight back up again. Others make the full crossing at some risk and then, say or one or two days later, go back again; presumably because they think the grass is actually greener on the first side. 

As I'm a bit sad this amazing experience made me think of an article in the Harvard Business Review called 'The Grass isn't Greener' by Hirsh and Rangan. The central thesis of the article is that many companies are tempted to enter new markets when they are in trouble.  This is frequently a mistake. Based on a survey of 6,138 companies in 65 sectors they conclude "The difference in returns in an industry is several times greater than the difference across industries."  In fact the spread is over four times greater within industries than between them. Despite this many companies look enviously at the other side of the river and decide to enter new sectors, frequently by making acquisitions to bolster returns ( I will resist the obvious analogy between crocodiles and Investment Bankers. Actually I won't, as it's a good one but that's another story ). Many acquisitions end up destroying value and forays into new sectors frequently leave the company in even more trouble than when they started.

Hirsh and Rangan go on to say "In almost every case, a bigger opportunity lies in improving your performance in the industry you're in, by fixing your strategy and strengthening the capabilities that create value for customers and separate you from your competitors," I agree. Not all Wildebeest migrate, some stay in Kenya all year and avoid the treacherous river crossing. You can tell them apart because they are better fed and look healthier. 

So don't be a migrating Wildebeest, make the most of the grass where you are.

Pharaohs, policy and pray

There was a very interesting editorial in today's FT headed "Bible holds lessons for future of Energy". I have to agree totally with the central premise of the piece which uses the example of Joseph who urged Pharaoh to use the seven years of plenty to prepare for the famine. In recent years the global supply of fossil fuels, particularly gas, has entered an era of abundance,or least greater supply than we thought. However, this will not last for ever and the article urges maximising indigenous production, "pushing for greater fuel economy" ( I would argue for efficiency of all energy not just fuel), and "supporting renewable and nuclear power even when in the short term they are uncompetitive against fossil fuels". I support all these although I would add that any premium for renewable or nuclear has to be properly tested to ensure it provides long term lower prices, clear industrial or economic benefits to society and is the right technology at the right price. 

The one thing the article didn't advocate, which given its biblical theme it could have done, was that we should pray for enlightenment for our energy policy makers which seems lacking at times. More on that later I'm sure.

All you need is love and......

Having mused on what people need and want the very next thing I read was the Introduction to 'The Coming Jobs War' by Jim Clifton. He says that  based on extensive polling by Gallup the one thing that "would change the current state of humankind" is the emergence of 1.8bn real jobs. He argues it would create "worldwide peace, global well being and the next extraordinary advancements in human development". A fairly ambitious claim. His maths is interesting.

"Of the 7 billion people on Earth, there are 5 billion adults aged 15 and older. Of these 5 billion, 3 billion tell Gallup they work or want to work. Most of these people need a full-time formal job. The problem is that there are currently only 1.2 billion full-time formal jobs in the world. "

That gives rise to his gap of 1.8 billion. From my experience of young people in the UK, discussing unemployment in Europe and from travelling in Africa I realise that he has a strong point. Having a good, formal job that provides steady and secure income and a sense of purpose is a key determinant of human well being.

I guess it should be 'all you need is love....and a job'.

Never give up on a good thing

This is positively my last post inspired by the book 'Digital Disruption' by James McQuivey but probably not my last on the subject of digital more generally. As a businessman my focus always tends to be on how businesses should respond to the various changes we see and digital is no exception. McQuivey says 'A company that wants to think and act like a digital disruptor has to have the right kind of energy, staff with the right skills and policies that enable digital disrupters to succeed." 

People at all levels of a company have to be excited and, in my words, 'get it' before digital can become embedded in its strategy. But that isn't enough. You have to have the right skills and mindset. A survey referred to in the book says that 65% of employees are excited about digital but only 38% of people believe the company has the right skills to adapt to the changes. Actually the skills are probably available but may be in the wrong place or tied up on other projects.However, this is probably not the biggest barrier: policies, procedures and structures Are bigger problems. Another quote from the book says its well. "One of the biggest structural barriers our clients face is the specialisation of silos that have built up over the years. Because companies have built up those silos in an era of analog assumptions, each silo took shape under certain expectations about how it would add value to the company. In the face of digital disruption those silo assumptions become dramatic liabilities." The bigger, older and more successful a company, the more entrenched and powerful are those silos. The leader has to work really hard and be persistent to overcome them. Sometimes small teams acting outside the normal structure can be the only way of overcoming the resistance. Indeed I have some experience of that working. McQuivey adds three further tips;

- identify silos and breakdown barriers ( easier to write than actually do ).

- get senior executives to commit their support. To my mind this is essential and needs to be both         done AND seen to be done.

- insist on short development time frames.

I would add a fifth tip. Never give up. 

All you need is love

A lot has been written about the needs and wants of humans and hence, from a business perspective, customers. One of the most common and earliest pieces of intellectual works was Maslows hierarchy of needs which he devolved in 1943. This is usually represented as a pyramid as follows

Of course Lennon and McCartney put it a lot simpler: 'All you need is Love'.

My question is whether in a digitally dominated age this historic approach is still relevant.  In his book 'Digital Disruption' James McQuivey proposes four fundamental human needs as follows.

1. COMFORT.  This covers things like reassurance, peace, security and safety. This is probably the most basic of the needs but is still used a lot in advertising.

2. CONNECTION. We are by nature gregarious people ( although my wife would dispute that about me when I am in one of my anti-social moods ) and we need to be connected. I guess this explains the phenomena that is Facebook which now has over one billion users.

3. VARIETY.  We all need to be stimulated and I have certainly relished the variety that my life and job has given me. The book gives another perspective. "Any parent who has listened to children complain that they are bored, bored, bored after only a week of summer vacation will recognise this need for stimuli that is native to the human animal."

4. UNIQUENESS.  Although we want to connect we also want to feel unique and different. Sometimes we actually forget how unique we all are in our circles of friends, characters and our combination of joband hobbies? Another  quote from Digital Disruption to illustrate this from a business angle. "The desire to distinguish oneself from the herd is strong enough that people will pay extra for it." We see this manifested in premium tickets, VIP passes, platinum cards and the like.

This is a good list and a useful guide for business but I do think it misses the universal truth expressed by Lennon and McCartney!

Life, the Universe and Everthing

One thing I am now trying to do is catch up on some reading I missed during June. An example is the Scottish Government's 335 page Second Report on Proposals and Policies: Meeting the Emissions Reduction Targets. This looks at how Scotland is doing against its targets for carbon emissions and what it might have to do to meet its overall target of a 42% cut by 2020.

It was disappointing that the interim target for 2011 was missed but I have looked at the longer term, mainly because the battle on climate change is a long term fight for the survival of our modern lifestyle. Since the generally accepted base line date of 1990 the UK has done pretty well with a 25.6% cut which puts it near the top of the European champions leagues as the table below show.

.Table 1.1: How Scotland compares to other countries16

Member State	Change 1990-2011			Member State	Change 1990-2011
Austria	18.0%			Bulgaria	-38.9%
Belgium	-6.4%			Cyprus	54.5%
Denmark	-26.3%			Czech Republic	-34.4%
Finland	-22.5%			Estonia	-46.3%
France	-15.3%			Hungary	-35.3%
Germany	-22.4%			Latvia	n/a
Greece	9.3%			Lithuania	-74.0%
Ireland	4.7%			Malta	213.0%
Italy	-7.8%			Poland	-14.3%
Luxembourg	-4.5%			Romania	-54.8%
Netherlands	1.0%			Slovakia	-38.7%
Portugal	-4.1%			Slovenia	6.8%
Spain	29.2%
Sweden	-12.0%
United Kingdom	-25.6%
Average EU - 15	-12.7%			Average EU - 27	-17.1

Within the UK figure Scotland has done even better with a 29.6% cut which would put it top of the EU 15 members and only beaten by former East European economies.

SCOTLAND	-29.6%
England	-26.7%
Wales	-19.8%
Northern Ireland	-16.2%
United Kingdom	-25.6%

So how are we doing looking at the whole period from 1990. At the end of 2011 we were exactly 70% of the way through the period to 2020 and 29.6% is 70.4% of 42% which is looking good. However, the early 1990s was a period of significant de-industrialisation and we don't ether have or want that option again. We have made good progress on renewables but need to sustain that for the next seven years. The real challenges are, I believe in heat and transport with the contribution of the carbon sequestration from peatland restoration coming a close third. 

I realise that the figure of 42% is not a magic one ( despite it being the answer to Life, the Universe and Everything ) but it remains an appropriate and stretching target but one that will involve difficult decisions and challenging changes to how we live our lifestyle. It's a long road. 

Change your old school tie

It's not often you get a letter that make the hairs on the back of your neck stand up but a few months ago I did and today ( 5th July ) was the result. I gave out the prizes and made a speech at my old school, Trinity in Croydon.  I hadn't been back for over thirty years and it was interesting to see what had changed and what was exactly the same. I even met two of my old teachers and involuntarily tucked my shirt in. I have to say that the highlight was at the beginning of my speech when I told all the pupils that they could take their ties off as I wasn't wearing one. It was something  I have wanted to announce from the stage of my school for 35 years. RESULT.

I used as the theme for my speech 'change'. To start with I illustrated it with three different things that have changed radically in my life time and largely in the lifetime of the pupils. They were:

1. Phones. When I left school a mobile phone consisted of a bag of ten Ps. Now every one has sleek, thin mobiles that double as computers and cameras. It is the fastest spreading technology ever, beating fire and the wheel, and there are now more mobile phones (6bn) than working toilets (4.5bn)  in the world.

2. Music. As a teenager I was limited to a Sony Walkman and whichever six tapes I picked for a trip. Now even something as small as an iPod nano contains 33 times as many songs.

3. IT. The first laptop was sold in the 1980s and the storage was the old floppy disc. A modern flash drive has 5500 times more storage capacity. The iPad has revolutionised my life and 140 million have been sold worldwide and it was only launched in 2010 with 50bn apps downloaded to date. 

However, change doesn't only happen to technology, it also happens to people. Last week I dug out my old school reports and they don't make great reading. Comments like "he loses concentration too easily", "he must try to do something about his general untidiness and poor spelling" and "too fond of silly behaviour" are pretty typical. One comment stood out, however. "C+. Good, but could do better. It is up to him". I guess it was. 

I wasn't a Prefect, didn't win any prizes, wasn't Captain of anything, in fact my main claim to fame was that I ran the lost property office. ( As an aside I asked to see the lost property office on my tour of the school. Apparently, no one had ever asked that before, I can't think why! And they've moved it, without asking! ). Despite this things seemed to turn out okay despite the fact that I made a number of changes of direction in my early career. My concluding remarks were:

"One lesson that I have learned is to embrace change by keeping learning, grabbing opportunities, trying new things and not accepting the status quo or other people's opinions of what I can do" 

I ended by misquoting Charles Darwin. "It is not the Captain of the First XV that survives, nor the person who comes top of the class, but the one most responsive to change.

I really enjoyed the experience of going back to my old stomping ground and hopefully inspiring another generation of people fond of silly behaviour that they can change; and more than just their ties.

The new most important bit of the school

Going in the posh door.