Toilets in abundance

My latest reading has been 'Abundance' by Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler. It is subtltled 'The Future is better than you think' which really does explain what the book is all about. 

They start by explaining how we are predisposed to be worried and afraid, a feeling that is exploited by the media. As this quote says "it's hard to be optimistic, because the brain's filtering architecture is pessimistic by design. Second, good news is drowned out, because it's in the media's best interest to overemphasize the bad." They point out that all almost all measures we are better off than we have ever been. Given my energy background the one that most stood out to me was the case of lighting; "In England, artificial lighting was twenty thousand times more expensive circa AD 1300 than it is today."

The book then goes on a grand tour of a vast range of subjects and argues how technology is and will enormously transform our lives. Topics covered include IT, biotechnology, artificial intelligence, robotics, digital manufacturing, medicine and nano materials. I was particularly struck with the small section on toilets! They point out that the basic technology has been unchanged for thousands of years. Apparently the Gates Foundation is funding eight universities to bring toilet technology into the 21st century; "the goal is to solve both problems: to find a way for people to go to the bathroom that doesn't involve running water or sewage, while still rendering human waste completely harmless." 

Overall is an uplifting book but I remain sceptical that technology will win its race against scarcity. Our levels of consumption and environmental damage will require revolutionary change and whilst the technology might be available I doubt whether the political will exists to allow that technology to thrive. 

New Years resolutions

I realise it is already a bit late in January to talk about New Year Resolutions but last week I chaired the first 2020 group meeting of 2014 and talked about them in my introductory remarks.

Apparently the custom has an old history with the ancient Babylonians repaying debts and medieval knights renewing their chivalry vows. It is estimated that about 40% of people make resolutions, or based on my experience, individuals make them every few years. A research project by Richard Wiseman of the University of Bristol showed that 88% of people fail to live up to their promises despite the fact that 52% were confident of success before they started. 

What I found particularly interesting in this survey were the two factors that increased the chance of success. You are more likely to stick to your resolution if you make specific and short term goals rather than vague ambitions. It is better to say that you will lose one pound a week rather just the platitude of "lose weight". The second success factor is when a resolution is made public and shared with friends and family.

I think these two factors also apply to our efforts in tackling climate change. It is great to have a lofty ambition to reduce carbon emissions by 42% by 2020 as Scotland has but it is difficult for any of us to fully grasp what that actually means. What will drive change is much shorter term, measurable goals; things like I will focus on my driving style so that I can improve my miles per gallon by 20%. (By the way I know that can be done because I did it a few years ago, losing weight is another matter!). However, what the Scottish Climate Change act gives us is a very clear public commitment and the 2020 group is all about the help of family and friends. Let's hope that we keep our 2014 climate change resolutions.