Three big ideas for a big challenge

I was asked to speak at the launch of Strathclyde University's Centre for Energy policy. The brief was to come up with a 'big idea' for a new direction in policy formation. In true Ian Marchant style I rather exceeded the brief and suggested three big ideas. 

The first idea was the formation of a Royal commission on the question of unburnable carbon. Our society is still dependent on fossil fuels and the UK is still dependent on the hundreds of thousands of jobs created by this industry. However, most analysis suggests that only around a half of all known global reserves of fossil fuels can be extracted before we trigger climate change that would cause serious damage to our way of life. All to often policy makers and, indeed, the energy industry, ignores this dilemma and seeks to maximise UK fossil fuel production whilst maintaining a strong commitment to limiting gobal climate change. The implicit assumption is that someone else, somewhere else, should leave their carbon in the ground. We never make this explicit, never say why we should be so fortunate as to use our own reserves and never specify who should lose out in the carbon scramble. This is not an easy dilemma to solve and we should get our best and impartial minds to address it and come up with practical policy recommendations.

My second idea was not really new. Over a third of our energy usage is on heat but the whole policy agenda in heat has been fragmented and short term. Any heat project depends upon a key customer to take the bulk of that heat. That is a local issue and the viability of any investment depends upon that heat customer surviving as you can't dump surplus heat onto a national grid like you can with electricity. We need a policy review that reflects these physical and economic realities. The main thing it needs to be is a long term policy, in fact it needs to be longer than for electricity. 

My third big idea is something I have modestly called "Marchants Law" following on from Moores law in the semiconductor industry.  Let me explain. Globally we need to largely decarbonise electricity supply over the coming decades but electricity has some unique features. A kWh is the same the world over. Wherever you are that KWh can charge your smartphone or light up your life. A gramme of carbon emissions is the same the world over. It has the same environmental impact regardless of its source. Taking these two factors means that the carbon intensity of generation (ie grammes of CO2 per kWh) is comparable over both time and space. That gives us a foundation for policy or my law. Every country and every large geneator should halve their carbon intensity ever ten years. In the UK it's typically around 500g now so by 2025 it would be 250g, by 2035   It would be 125g and so on. This is technology neutral and would allow nuclear, renewables and carbon capture to compete. It can work with both competitive and regulatory based market structures. It can work alongside other policy interventions. It can be used as the basis of a global deal in the electricity sector.

I put forward these ideas to stimulate better minds than mine to tackle a big challenge we face in the 21st century; how do we revolutionise our vital energy industry so that it continues to drive economic development without undermining our environment.